I assume you know the results of the NH primary. The Dems have so many problems it is hard to pick a starting point. As of this afternoon they had 3 candidates drop out of the race including the only remaining black candidate. So much for the inclusive nature of the Democrat Party! Next they have Warren who cannot do better than 4th place on her home turf. Maybe all those lies are starting to catch up with her. I suspect she will try to stay in the race until Super Tuesday when she will get destroyed and then the money will dry up and she will be history. Biden said he would win in Iowa – he didn’t. Then he said that he would win in NH – and he didn’t even after they took 4 candidates off the campaign trail during the impeachment hoax. Now he says SC is his firewall because he has the black vote there. Guess what – his support among blacks in SC has dropped from about 60% two weeks ago to about 29% today. He was never going to make it anyway and that primary will probably seal the deal for him.
It looks like Sanders has put together a campaign organization to go the distance, unlike any of the remaining candidates. Now we have MSNBC – yes, MSNBC – trying to take out Sanders. You can’t make this stuff up. The political left-wing media has decided that Sanders should not be allowed to win the nomination. I guess the power brokers and establishment created a monster when they allowed Independent Sanders to run as a Democrat. Just think how the Dems will do in the national elections (especially in House and Senate races) with a devout socialist at the top of the ticket. I wonder how states will list Sanders on their ballots? Will he have a (D) after his name or an (I)? I could see the RNC demanding that he be listed as (I) if for no other reason than to highlight his socialist background and policies.
So going into the Democrat convention, it looks like a 2 horse race with Sanders and the squad leading the charge from the far, far left. Coming in from the moderate, or conservative, or independent, or whatever works today corner will be Mike Bloomberg with his checkbook and paid army. Sanders will probably have a fair amount of delegates but not enough to win on the first ballot. Then the super delegates come into play on the second ballot and any additional ballots. But watch closely because the way the DNC convention is set up they can change the rules at the beginning of the convention. Don’t be surprised if they try to change the rules to allow super delegates to vote on the first ballot to avoid a contested contest. If Sanders is selected, he will almost surely hurt the party’s chances of retaining control of the House and probably some state and local elections as well. If Bloomberg is selected, it is very unlikely that Sanders base of supporters will vote in November, and if they do it will be for anybody but Bloomberg. Trump would be a strong bet to win a second term against either Sanders or Bloomberg.
If the Dems fail to pick a candidate in the 1st or 2nd round of balloting, this is where we might see a proposal to select a dark horse candidate. You might see a pitch to draft Michelle Obama. I know it sounds crazy but the Dems will be looking for a hail mary person to save the party. Can you just see the debates with Trump going up against Michelle Obama? I do think that she would probably get a lot of votes despite not being qualified to do anything – sort of like her husband!
The one element in all of this that deserves consideration is what happens with the Durham investigation and some of the other DOJ investigations recently started. If we start to see indictments handed down that could change everything very quickly. People will pay attention to these actions and their confidence in selecting a candidate may well be decided on which party they believe is more honest. Independents will be a key group to watch.
Right now it looks like Trump is holding most of the high cards. Don’t put much confidence in any of the polls coming out. They are not representative of the voting population in November. For example, a significant percentage of the people who attended the Trump rally in NH on Monday night had never voted in a national election but they decided to vote this November. None of these folks would ever have been included in any of the polls being taken from now until election night. To say that Trump’s poll numbers are understated is the only true statement that can be made!